War of the World
By Kenneth Tiven in Washington
The Russian military attack against Ukraine came overnight by land sea and air, with Russian hackers attacking internet sites and spreading disinformation. There is nothing subtle about the invasion. Across a vast nation, from the east coast to the western border with Poland, reports suggest Russia is shelling virtually every major city in Ukraine, including the capital of Kyiv. “It looks like a blitzkrieg,” said one journalist there.
US and Western European leaders were quick to put sanctions on various international connections tying Russian banks to the global economy but refrained from committing troops to help the Ukrainian army fight off the Russians. Neither treaties nor the United Nations can do much to solve this issue now. This approach has been made clear for several weeks and did not deter Russian President Vladimir Putin in any way. Instead, he has made speeches and actions placing the context of the attack on historical Russian governance of the region, dating back through both the Soviet era and to the 18th century.
When it came to sanctions, one can imagine Putin paraphrasing a children’s rhyme:
Палки и камни сломают мне кости,
Но санкции мне никогда не повредят.
Sticks and stones will break my bones,
But sanctions will never hurt me.
Putin hinted at the nuclear weapons issue to make his resolve clear, warning that, “there should be no doubt that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country”. An earlier speech made clear his historical grievances and accusations of a relentless Western plot against his country. His target goes beyond Ukraine to America’s “empire of lies,” threatening “consequences you have never faced in your history” for “anyone who tries to interfere with us.”
For his part, US President Joe Biden insisted in a Thursday statement that sanctions would be ratcheted up to reach the Russians on the street, not just oligarchs with global investments. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a case for sanctions against Russia, especially the oligarchs who live part-time in London.
As Russian troops entered Ukraine from three sides, fighting and bombings intensified, but it is difficult to gain a sense of how Ukraine’s military is managing. Clearly, this full-scale assault is intended to take the major cities in that nation as quickly as possible. At one point late on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported a death toll of fewer than 200 people so far. But it’s likely to go up as communications are somewhat disrupted now.
Compared to 1939’s German blitzkrieg, the world watches this in real-time through satellite images and internet supplied information from both sides, some of which is disinformation, including realistic images grabbed from computer war games. What Putin’s endgame is remains unclear but he believes the USA and NATO are incapable of responding militarily. He knows quite well how he almost talked former US President Donald Trump into leaving NATO, and how Trump continues to say what a great leader he is with this invasion. Trump’s continual disparagement of NATO cannot be discounted in explaining how some Republicans in the US are applauding the invasion, while others are not.
Sanctions may hurt but it’s a modest cost for making a point: We are BACK as a Global Power and deserve respect, If not fear. Not content with being a dictator at home, he wants to be an avenging aggressor abroad for everything that has happened to Russia since Peter the Great ruled 302 years ago. A woman fleeing Kharkiv, a city close to the Russian border, summed it up for journalist Clara Maraud saying: “This is already going on for eight years. I think Russia lost a war, a cultural and civilizational war and that’s why they started an open attack as they have nothing to lose.”
US efforts to get ahead of the Russians with intelligence reports on what they were about to do might have startled Russia’s military leadership, but failed to push Putin’s military off its assigned course. Longtime foreign correspondent Mort Rosenblum wrote that “With all of its nuclear superpower, the United States is like a muscular weightlifter made impotent by steroids. It cannot intervene without provoking a world war that everyone would lose. Sanctions achieve nothing in the short term. Leaders at the top are the last to suffer. Both Putin and (Chinese leader) Xi are playing for the history books, not simple tactical gains.”
Short-term, the global markets are reacting badly. The long-term fallout is likely to take some time to peak. Immediately, the Russian rouble’s value declined precipitously to its lowest value against hard foreign currencies in a very long time. The impact on energy prices is far wider than just in Ukraine. Russian citizens’ unhappiness with this attack on the country next door has been widely reported externally, but since the Russian government has nominal control over all news media, it was under-reported there. Social media carries the information and the professional media is forbidden.
There is a meme making the rounds on the internet that says Putin was speaking at a grade school and took questions. A girl named Sasha asked two questions: “Why did the Russians take the Crimea and why are we sending troops into Ukraine?” Good questions says President Putin, but then the bell rings and the kids go to lunch. When they come back, Putin is still there and asks for more questions. A girl named Misha asks: “I have four questions. Why did Russia invade Crimea, why are we invading Ukraine and why did the bell go off 20 minutes early and where the heck is Sasha? “
I asked a former Kyiv resident whom I have known since he emigrated to the USA in 1982 what he is hearing from family and friends there. “They are all afraid and there is no place to go,” he said. He spoke for millions of Ukrainians both in the country and abroad.
Putin and his advisors have perceived a window of opportunity, with divided opinion in the USA on everything, and governments fatigued by the pressures of dealing with the pandemic. Invading a nation with 44 million people is risky. Along with sanctions will come some guerrilla resistance from Ukraine partisans, who fought so hard to be free of Russian-leaning leadership over the past decades.
This is a Putin’s talking point, but the reality is that the uncertainty gives him greater latitude. His annexation of Crimea, his invasion of Georgia in 2008, his military involvement in Syria in 2015 all came and went with no serious repercussions. His potential nuclear force emboldens him to seek confrontation with the West. He believes the European Union and the United States will not counter him. Within Russia, there is no countervailing force to Putin’s emotional desires.
A foreign crisis that threatens the USA is a critical aspect of the presidency and Biden has a great deal of global experience, which is exactly what his predecessor lacked. Any argument that the former president did a better job handling Russia misses the point that Trump fawned over Putin. Today, a disunited States on this issue has unthinkable consequences for a nation approaching its 250th birthday as a democracy. And for the rest of the democratic world.
—The writer has worked in senior positions at The Washington Post, NBC, ABC and CNN and also consults for several Indian channels
Read the related article: India and the Ukraine crisis
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